TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – February 13


United States
• After last week’s start-of-month data dump and the prior week’s executive order deluge, this week has
been fairly quiet for U.S. investors.
• International trade data was the only top-tier release, highlighting an improvement in the trade deficit and
suggesting some upward revision to fourth quarter GDP. Also constructive was the sustained decline in
initial jobless claims, which beat expectations and fell to 234k last week.
• Rather than the data, the markets were more interested in what was being said by policymakers about
the U.S. economy, cheering the mere mention of what was touted by the president as a ‘phenomenal’ tax
plan. Plenty of Fed-speak also kept market participants looking for clues for the next Fed hike, but one is
unlikely until at least mid-year.

• Employment and housing starts data for January suggest a carryover of the positive momentum from the
end of last year into the start of 2017.
• Census data released this week confirms that population growth has and will likely continue to support
the housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto. Indeed, more supply is needed to help alleviate demand
pressures, and we expect that these markets will continue to experience strong housing starts despite a
potential for some transitory softening in the existing home market this year.
• None of the news this week is likely to change our own or the Bank of Canada’s view on the Canadian
economy. Material economic slack is apparent in the Canadian economy, and its gradual absorption should
ensure that the Bank of Canada keeps monetary policy highly accommodative through 2018.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446