TD / Canada Trust Economic Highlights – Feb 10

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK – Feb. 10

United States

  • After a choppy start to the week, equities rallied Thursday morning, following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) announcement to keep its policy rate at 0.25%. Despite mounting disinflationary pressures, the ECB made no mention of when they will end the sterilization of their Securities Market Program (SMP).
  • January U.S. payrolls advanced by an underwhelming 113k jobs, with the private sector having added 144k jobs, while government subtracted 29k from the tally. The unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1 percentage points, falling to 6.6%.
  • December U.S. trade data showed a relatively sizeable widening in the trade deficit, largely due to a 1.8% m/m decline in exports. The decline wipes out much of the gains made over the prior two months, and could shave as much as 0.5 percentage points from the current Q4 GDP tracking of 3.2% (annualized).

Canada

  • Employment in Canada rebounded by 29,000 net jobs in January, with all the job gains concentrated in full-time positions. The unemployment rate decreased to 7.0% from 7.2%.
  • Canada’s trade deficit came in at $1.7 billion in December, widening from the downwardly revised Novem­ber deficit of $1.5 billion. Imports (+1.2%) advanced at a faster rate than exports (+0.9%). The 2013Q4 readings suggest that net exports will likely be a drag on real GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
  • The Canadian dollar appreciated by almost one U.S. cent this week, after falling below 90 U.S. cents last week for the first time since August 2009.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area
TD Canada Trust T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446

John.Maveety@td.com