TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – April 12

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK – April 12, 2016

United States

• Risk-off sentiment was back on this week with investors seeking out safe-have assets amid rising concerns over global growth. Equity markets will closed the week down and U.S. treasuries rallied for much of the week with yields ending the week slightly lower.

• A fairly light week in terms of data was accompanied by a slew of Fed speeches and the release of the FOMC’s minutes from its March meeting. Particular emphasis on the Fed’s cautious approach to monetary policy normalization was cited, highlighting risks surrounding the outlook for growth and inflation.

• Next week will shed further light on the global economic environment, with China’s week-long macro data dump and the IMF’s updated global economic forecasts.

Canada

• The economic data this week gives us a pretty good handle on the tracking for economic growth in the first quarter of this year. Canadian real GDP is on track rise by close to 3%. This is echoed in the job market, where the economy added 41,0000 jobs in March and the unemployment edged down to 7.1%.

• With most of Canada’s strength tied to the combination of a low currency and foreign demand, near-term momentum is expected to fade with a still weak global economic back drop, and real GDP growth is expected to settle into 2% pace for the rest of the year.

• The Bank of Canada is likely to look past recent strength and hold its policy rate at 0.5% at its meeting next week and well into the future.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446
John.Maveety@td.com